Listen to the canaries
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The national economy may not be singing at full volume, but it is humming right along. Part of the orchestration includes canaries who are off-tune heard in the background only now...but they are there and need to be listened to.
Miner used canaries to alert them to dangers underground, and so it is today canaries warning us about the economy.
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Canary No.1: We live in a consumer economy with 70% of GPD fueled by people buying things. Today, the top 10% of incomes fuels 50% of the consumer economy riding high on stock earnings and equities. The other 50% consumers are living on salaries or hourly wages, and their world is increasingly burdens by basic living expenses. Decreasing discretionary spending in a consumer eco.
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Canary No. 2: Jobs and incomes. Without them we only exist and grow frustrated, so this part of the economy must function.
Canary No. 3: Businesses growing or not. Telltale signs are layoffs, mortgage defaults and home foreclosures, and bankruptcies. Right now, companies are not hiring, doing some layoffs to trim expenses and boost stock values, and not investing in future growth except for AI.
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Other canaries: Suttle consumer proxies such as credit cards, car loans, and bank business loans, If these and others faulter, then banks and other financial entities need liquidity to survive... and thus enters the Fed pumping money into the system..
Wall Street Journal 12-21-2024
Real Estate activity reports as soon as they are published local and national sources​​
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​Why mtg rate up Fed dwn Tiana 11-17-2024
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Mtg rates up 6-weeks straight 11-8-2024
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Oct sales better highend Hansen 11-9-2024
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Ins'rs hurting home sales Svaldi 11-10-2024
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Oct 2024 report Svaldi DP 11-6-2024
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People leaving devastated areas 11-2-2024
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RE News Archives​​
Pete and I watch Heather Ridge sales daily if not more. Pete recently called the listing agent of a closed Sausalito sale questioning data in MLS -- the seller paying $101,000 in concessions to a buyer. Turns out a decimal error and was $10,100, but such obvious errors are important to correct, let alone all the little ones.
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Paying attention to the Heather Ridge real estate market is what Pete and I do for sellers. Here are current and very interesting stats about today's market compared to 2024:
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Jan 1-to- Oct 1 YTD 2025 2024
# of Closings 53 50
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Gross $ sold amount $17,952,800 $17,758,484
Average sold price $338,732 $355,170
Median sold price $335,000 $364,000
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Concessions - Average $8,037 $8,312
Concessions - Median $7,500 $7,400
% of sellers paying concessions 72% 74%
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The two years look almost the same except for sold prices. The 2025 average sold price is down $16,438 from 2024; but the median sold price is down a whopping $29,000. This clearly shows how the market has changed from 2024 as a continuation of 2023. What might this say about 2026's real estate market? The economy? Interest rates?
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Market knowledge is critical to decision making, along with a market perspective by agents. Pete and I have over 50 years each helping others buy and sell in all kinds of markets. Let us help you decide what's best for you.